What does it mean that information is raw material for decisions?

Every decision you make is only as good as the information it is based on.

Example: You are deciding whether to leave your job and start a business. You have a gut feeling it is the right move. You have read a few success stories. A friend who runs a company says 'go for it.' But you have not researched your target market's size. You have not calculated your runway. You have not talked to people who tried and failed in the same space. You have not examined the base rate of success for first-time founders in your industry. You make the leap based on enthusiasm and selective data. Fourteen months later, you are out of money and back on the job market — not because the idea was bad, but because the information you used to make the decision was incomplete, biased, and unverified. The decision felt right. The information underneath it was wrong.

Try this: Choose one significant decision you are currently facing or have recently made. Write down the three to five pieces of information that are most influencing your thinking. For each one, answer: Where did this information come from? How old is it? Have I verified it against a second source? Is it a fact, an interpretation, or an assumption I am treating as fact? Could someone with opposite incentives present different information that would change my conclusion? Score each piece of information from 1 (unverified assumption) to 5 (verified, current, multi-source fact). If your average score is below 3, your decision is running on weak raw material. Identify the single weakest input and find a way to strengthen or replace it before you commit.