Decision journal entries need six fields captured before outcomes: date, decision, reasoning, prediction, confidence %, and your current state

Why This Is a Rule

Decision journals are the single most powerful tool for improving decision quality over time — but only if they capture the right information at the right moment. The six fields are each necessary for different learning functions, and the "before outcome is known" constraint prevents hindsight bias from contaminating the record.

Date/time enables temporal pattern detection (do you decide worse at certain times?). One-sentence decision forces clarity about what exactly you chose. Reasoning chain captures your actual logic, which you'll forget or reconstruct after the outcome is known. Expected outcome (falsifiable) creates a prediction that can be compared to reality — vague expectations can't be evaluated. Confidence percentage enables calibration tracking over time (After 30+ journal entries, calculate your calibration — do your 70% predictions come true 70% of the time?). Mental/physical state captures the decision context that correlates with decision quality: were you rested or depleted, calm or stressed?

The "before outcome" timing is the most important constraint. After you know how a decision turned out, you can't accurately reconstruct your original reasoning — hindsight bias rewrites your memory to make the outcome seem predictable. The pre-outcome record is the only honest artifact of your decision-making process.

When This Fires

• When making any significant decision worth learning from
• For all one-way door decisions (Classify every decision as one-way or two-way door before deliberating — minutes for reversible, days for irreversible) — mandatory
• For consequential two-way door decisions — recommended
• When building a decision-quality improvement practice over months and years

Common Failure Mode

Journaling after outcomes: "Let me record that decision I made last month — the one that turned out badly." This is learning from outcomes, not learning from process. You'll reconstruct your reasoning to match the outcome, missing the actual errors in your pre-decision thinking. If you didn't journal before the outcome, the learning opportunity is severely compromised.

The Protocol

(1) At the moment of making a significant decision, before you know the outcome, write: Date/time: when the decision was made. Decision: one sentence stating what you chose. Reasoning: the key factors and logic that led to this choice (3-5 bullet points). Expected outcome: a falsifiable prediction — "I expect [specific measurable result] by [date]." Confidence: a percentage (0-100%) expressing how likely you think your expected outcome is. State: your current mental/physical state — rested/tired, calm/stressed, rushed/deliberate. (2) Close the entry and don't revisit until the outcome window has passed. (3) Review using the three-step protocol (Review decisions in three steps: re-read reasoning blind, predict outcome, then compare — this sequence defeats hindsight bias) to extract maximum learning while defeating hindsight bias.