Principlev1
Validate that leading indicators actually predict lagging
Validate that leading indicators actually predict lagging outcomes by periodically checking whether movements in the leading metric were followed by corresponding movements in the outcome, replacing proxies that fail this test.
Why This Is a Principle
Derives from Domain-Specific Calibration Development (calibration requires feedback loops), Knowledge that exists only in tacit form degrades without (tacit knowledge degrades), and When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good (measures becoming targets). The lesson warns against gaming proxies and prescribes empirical validation of the leading-lagging correlation.