Principlev1
Use base-rate forecasting from similar past cases rather
Use base-rate forecasting from similar past cases rather than bottom-up task simulation to counteract systematic underestimation of duration and complexity.
Why This Is a Principle
Grounds in Hindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity (memory reconstructs toward known outcomes) and Reference class forecasting (using base rates from similar (reference class forecasting outperforms planning). Prescribes using external historical data over internal simulation—a planning principle with clear action implications.