Definitionv1

Reference class forecasting: an estimation technique that

Reference class forecasting: an estimation technique that counters the planning fallacy by basing time predictions on how long similar tasks actually took in the past, rather than on inside-view analysis of the current task

Why This Is a Definition

Genus: estimation technique. Differentia: uses historical similar-task data instead of inside-view analysis.

Source Lessons

L-0829

Planning fallacy countermeasures

Add buffer to every estimate and use reference class forecasting.

Back to Concepts