Principlev1

Maintain decision logs that record the domain, your

Maintain decision logs that record the domain, your intuitive estimate, the actual base rate, and the vivid example that inflated the estimate to build a personal availability calibration map.

Why This Is a Principle

This principle derives from Domain-Specific Calibration Development (calibration develops from domain-specific feedback), Externalization Exposes Hidden Structure (externalization exposes gaps), and Knowledge that exists only in tacit form degrades without (tacit knowledge degrades and cannot be improved). The principle prescribes creating explicit external records (Externalization Exposes Hidden Structure, Knowledge that exists only in tacit form degrades without) that enable domain-specific calibration feedback loops (Domain-Specific Calibration Development). It specifies what to record (domain, estimate, base rate, vivid example) to make the feedback loop operational. This is actionable, general across domains, and mechanistically grounded in how calibration develops.

Source Lessons

L-0149

The availability heuristic

You overestimate the likelihood of events you can easily recall examples of. The availability heuristic substitutes the question "how frequent is this?" with the question "how easily can I think of an example?" — and the substitution happens below conscious awareness, which means you feel like you are reasoning about probability when you are actually reasoning about the vividness of your memory.

Connections

Derived From (3)

AxiomDomain-Specific Calibration Development AxiomExternalization Exposes Hidden Structure AxiomKnowledge that exists only in tacit form degrades without

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