Principlev1

Calibrate your confidence in any belief to be inversely

Calibrate your confidence in any belief to be inversely proportional to the degree and persistence of expert disagreement about that belief.

Why This Is a Principle

Derives from Systematic Overconfidence Taxonomy (systematic overconfidence), Domain-Specific Calibration Development (calibration from feedback loops), and Hindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity (hindsight bias prevents learning). The principle prescribes confidence adjustment based on external signals, following from axioms about calibration and bias. General and actionable.

Source Lessons

L-0374

Contradictions in expert advice

When experts disagree the disagreement itself contains information about the limits of current knowledge. Expert contradiction is not a failure of expertise — it is a map of where the evidence runs out, where hidden variables lurk, and where your own epistemic work must begin. The most dangerous response is not confusion but premature certainty: picking one expert and ignoring the other destroys the signal the disagreement was carrying.

Connections

Derived From (3)

AxiomHindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity AxiomSystematic Overconfidence Taxonomy AxiomDomain-Specific Calibration Development

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