Principlev1

Calculate the value of delaying irreversible decisions by

Calculate the value of delaying irreversible decisions by comparing the cost of waiting against the expected value of information that will arrive during the delay.

Why This Is a Principle

This derives from axioms about temporal discounting: Humans discount future rewards hyperbolically rather than (hyperbolic discounting of future rewards) and Humans discount future rewards hyperbolically, with value (same hyperbolic pattern). It provides a decision framework that accounts for the human tendency to overvalue immediate action—by explicitly calculating waiting costs versus information value, you counteract the discount bias. This is prescriptive and actionable.

Source Lessons

L-0138

When in doubt, wait

When you cannot distinguish signal from noise, the highest-value action is usually inaction. Time is a filter — it degrades noise and amplifies signal. Forcing a decision under ambiguity does not resolve uncertainty; it converts uncertainty into error.

Connections

Derived From (2)

AxiomHumans discount future rewards hyperbolically rather than AxiomHumans discount future rewards hyperbolically, with value

Back to Concepts