Run four diagnostic questions in 60 seconds to select the right decision framework: reversibility, criteria count, time horizon, analysis cost

Why This Is a Rule

The meta-decision — deciding how to decide — is itself a decision that can consume disproportionate time. "Should we use a matrix? A pro/con list? Just go with gut?" This question, left open, produces its own analysis paralysis. The four diagnostic questions converge on the right framework class in 60 seconds by routing through the factors that actually determine which framework fits.

How reversible? routes between lightweight (reversible → fast heuristic) and heavyweight (irreversible → structured analysis) processes. How many competing criteria? routes between intuitive comparison (2-3 criteria → direct comparison) and externalized comparison (4+ criteria → decision matrix, Use a weighted decision matrix when options exceed 3 and criteria exceed 4 — working memory cannot hold all dimensions at once). What time horizon of consequences? routes between action bias (short horizon → decide and iterate) and deliberation bias (long horizon → pre-mortem, scenario planning). What is the cost of analysis itself? provides the meta-constraint: if the analysis cost exceeds the decision's importance, the analysis is the wrong tool regardless of what the other questions suggest.

The 60-second constraint prevents the meta-decision from becoming its own analysis project. These are quick diagnostic checks, not deep evaluations. If you spend more than 60 seconds selecting a framework, the meta-decision is consuming resources that should go to the actual decision.

When This Fires

• Before beginning analysis on any non-trivial decision
• When a team is debating which decision process to use — run the four questions
• When you feel stuck between multiple ways to approach a decision
• As the opening step of any structured decision process

Common Failure Mode

Skipping the meta-decision and defaulting to the same framework for all decisions: always using pro/con lists, always using gut instinct, or always using matrices. Each framework has a domain where it excels and domains where it wastes effort or produces poor results. The diagnostic questions ensure framework-decision fit.

The Protocol

(1) Before analysis begins, answer four questions (10-15 seconds each): (1) How reversible? Easily (hours to reverse) → lean lightweight. Moderate (weeks) → lean moderate. Irreversible → lean heavyweight. (2) How many criteria? 1-2 → intuitive or simple comparison. 3-4 → structured list. 5+ → weighted matrix (Use a weighted decision matrix when options exceed 3 and criteria exceed 4 — working memory cannot hold all dimensions at once). (3) What time horizon? Days → bias toward action, iterate. Months → scenario planning. Years → pre-mortem, multi-perspective analysis. (4) What's the analysis cost? If full analysis takes longer than the decision's value warrants → use the fastest adequate method. (2) Map the answers to a framework class: all lightweight → decide in 15 minutes. Mixed → moderate structured process. All heavyweight → full toolkit (Every decision framework needs five explicit components: criteria, sequence, time budget, kill conditions, and decision rights). (3) Proceed with the selected framework. Do not revisit the meta-decision unless new information changes the diagnostic answers.