Principlev1

Before estimating event frequency or probability, explicitly

Before estimating event frequency or probability, explicitly ask whether you are reasoning about base rates or about the ease of mentally retrieving vivid examples.

Why This Is a Principle

This principle derives from Availability Heuristic Mechanism (availability heuristic - retrieval fluency as frequency proxy), Automatic Narrative Generation Precedes Conscious Evaluation (brain generates causal narratives automatically), Automatic Pattern Perception (brain perceives patterns prior to verification), and Illusion of Explanatory Depth (self-assessment unreliable until forced articulation). The principle prescribes forcing explicit articulation (Illusion of Explanatory Depth) of which cognitive process is active before making probability judgments, because the brain automatically substitutes questions (Availability Heuristic Mechanism) and generates narratives (Automatic Narrative Generation Precedes Conscious Evaluation) without flagging the substitution. This is actionable, general, and addresses the core availability heuristic mechanism.

Source Lessons

L-0149

The availability heuristic

You overestimate the likelihood of events you can easily recall examples of. The availability heuristic substitutes the question "how frequent is this?" with the question "how easily can I think of an example?" — and the substitution happens below conscious awareness, which means you feel like you are reasoning about probability when you are actually reasoning about the vividness of your memory.

Connections

Derived From (4)

AxiomAutomatic Narrative Generation Precedes Conscious Evaluation AxiomIllusion of Explanatory Depth AxiomAvailability Heuristic Mechanism AxiomAutomatic Pattern Perception

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